EDITORIAL : THE DAWN, PAKISTAN

Kurram ambush

FRIDAY`S deadly ambush targeting a convoy of passenger vehicles in Kurram Agency seriously threatens to scuttle the fragile peace that has barely held in the region. At least eight people were reportedly killed while several were wounded as gunmen attacked vehicles on the Thall-Parachinar road in Baggan. Several people were also kidnapped. Reports indicate that most of the victims are Shia, which points to an overtly sectarian motive to the ambush as Shia and Sunni tribes have been at daggers drawn in the region bordering Afghanistan. Observers say this is the first attack inside Kurram proper since the Feb 3 peace deal was signed between the rival factions, though there have been several acts of violence in the surrounding areas. A few days earlier, militants kidnapped over 20 tribesmen from a village festival in Baggan while Thursday`s suicide attack in Hangu, in which five people, including a policeman, were killed, is indicative of the general insecurity that plagues the region.

There was guarded scepticism of the February peace deal — guaranteed as it was by the Taliban — when its details emerged. The TTP had welcomed it largely for ulterior motives, as observers said the sectarian conflict in Kurram was affecting the Haqqani network`s activities inside Afghanistan. As incidents of violence continued, tribal elders called upon the government to punish violators of the truce. Yet the political administration has failed to keep the peace and has not been able to protect vital road links. While it is true that the Taliban are not a monolithic entity and Friday`s ambush may have been the work of a militant faction not interested in honouring the peace deal, the fact remains that regardless of the militants` intentions, securing the area remains the state`s responsibility. The government`s lack of action has emboldened the militants.

The state — both the political leadership as well as the military — needs to be serious about securing Kurram and its surrounding areas. Though sectarian problems in the region date back to the Ziaul Haq era, matters have taken a turn for the worse ever since the Taliban arrived in 2007. Some say the military has focused too much on Swat, ignoring the security threats in Kurram. Also, critics point out that the security establishment claims the majority of Orakzai Agency — which borders Kurram — has been cleared of militants; if this is so why do the attacks continue? The state needs to prevent what is left of the peace process from completely falling apart. The ambush may well trigger retaliatory attacks and if the government fails to secure Kurram in the long run, this cycle of violence will never end.

Sign of a stable rate

THE State Bank of Pakistan`s decision to lift restrictions on forward booking of imports is a positive development and will protect importers against adverse and unfavourable exchange rate movements. The move completes the rupee`s transition to a free-floating currency as required by the $11.3bn IMF balance-of-payment loan agreement. The facility, according to a notification issued by the central bank on Tuesday, will be available to the `genuine` importers immediately against their letters of credit for a minimum period of one month. The bank had `temporarily` suspended this facility to importers three years ago in order to restrict imports on the back of fast-depleting foreign exchange reserves and rising price inflation, which had caused the rupee to shed 28 per cent of its value in the latter half of 2008. The restoration of the forward cover for imports, thus, signifies stability of the exchange rate on the back of growing foreign exchange reserves and an improving current account.

The bank`s initiative, however, is expected to increase the demand for dollars in the inter-bank market and increase downward pressure on the currency. A slight increase in pressure on the exchange rate is desirable because it will make exports cheaper and imports dearer. Additionally, it will ease pressure on the interest rates and help the bank maintain its key policy rate at the current level of 14 per cent even if it decides against lowering it in its forthcoming monetary policy review. The rupee has shown resilience during the current financial year because of the growth in exports and remittances from overseas Pakistani workers. Even the uncertainty regarding the continuity of the IMF programme and the rapid increase in global oil prices have failed to adversely affect the exchange rate. Yet the political conditions in the Arab world and the volatility in the global oil markets demand that the bank remain cautious and alert to avoid a freefall of the rupee as was witnessed two and a half years ago. Hence, it is advisable for the banks to put in place strong checks to prevent the misuse of this facility.

Timely warning

THE need for Pakistan and India to share intelligence has been felt for long. The Interpol chief`s disclosure about a terrorist plot to disrupt the cricket World Cup bonanza is further evidence that this intelligence needs to be spread wide and far. The revelation came amid threats to the Pakistani team by some right wing India-based groups. Shiv Sena is believed by some well-informed Indian quarters to be preparing to make things difficult for Pakistani cricketers should they reach the final, which is to be played in Mumbai on April 2. But more serious still, the arrested suspect was apparently planning to disturb the World Cup in Sri Lanka. This serves to reinforce the need for regional and international cooperation and the exchange of data to keep track of terrorist planning and pre-empt tragedy. Even though Ronald Noble, the Interpol chief, and Interior Minister Rehman Malik did not give details of the arrested suspect, Pakistanis typecast as the international terror-mongers must have been relieved by Mr Malik`s declaration that the suspect had `no connection` with Pakistan.

India and Pakistan had agreed in Havana some years ago to make sincere efforts to jointly combat terrorism. And addressing a press conference along with Mr Noble on Thursday, the interior minister said he had informed New Delhi that the Taliban had started their activity in India. The attack in Mumbai in November 2008 which was linked to the jihadi Lashkar-i-Taiba in Pakistan was preceded by the Samjhota Express carnage and the Malegaon bombing; the latter two incidents warned of the growing danger to India from homegrown terrorist networks. This tells us that typecasting a terrorist is an extremely hazardous profession. The terrorist threat has to be combated locally, regionally and globally in all manifestations.