EDITORIAL : THE HINDU, INDIA

Mixed news from Census 2011

Sometimes, the good news is inextricably tied up with the bad. Provisional data from Census 2011 indicate that India's population might stabilise soon with the slowing down of the growth rate. From 21.54 per cent in Census 2001, the decadal population growth fell to 17.64 per cent in 2011. In absolute terms, 2001-2011 is the first decade (if 1911-1921 is excluded) to add a smaller number to the population than the preceding decade. The other good news is that literacy rate climbed from 64.83 per cent in 2001 to 74.04 per cent in 2011. While literacy among males rose from 75.26 per cent to 82.14 per cent, an increase of 6.9 points, it rose among females from 53.67 per cent to 65.46 per cent, an increase of 11.8 points. Of the additional literates, women (110,069,001) outnumber men (107,631,940). The gap of 21.59 percentage points between men and women in 2001 now stands reduced to 16.68 points. The full census data, to be released next year, should provide policymakers a comprehensive view of where India stands on key indicators of socio-economic development, set against the goal of creating a more egalitarian and just society.

It is no surprise that the overall sex ratio (number of females for every 1,000 males) has shown improvement, from 932.91 in 2001 to 940.27 in 2011; a good part of this can be explained by the greater natural longevity of women and improvements in health care over the years. Lurking in the provisional population data, however, is a deeply disturbing set of statistics: a steep fall in the child sex ratio, which measures the number of girls for every 1,000 boys in the 0-6 years age group. The sex ratio in the 0-6 age group has been continually declining since 1961 but the fall from 927.31 in 2001 to 914.23 in 2011 is the worst since Independence. This trend and scale of decline in rising India is shocking. It can only be explained by the deadly application of the ‘son preference' on a growing scale — through the instrumentality of sex-selective abortion, or female foeticide. Attempts to tackle female foeticide through bans on sex-determination tests imposed by the Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act have been largely ineffective. In his essay ‘Many faces of gender inequality' (Frontline, November 9, 2001), Amartya Sen drew on the 2001 Census data to highlight the fact that India split into two when it came to the sex ratio in the 0-6 age group: the South and the East had a decent ratio while the entire North and the West revealed a deeply disturbing picture. Even though the regional split concealed many micro-level variations, the contrast was striking. It would be interesting to see if the same regional pattern continues in the 2011 Census but the overall child sex ratio data, which throw sharp light on social mores, are depressing.

Going round and round

Two recent exhortations by Jagdish Bhagwati and the WTO's Director-General Pascal Lamy to conclude the Doha round, though not original, are timely and send out some important messages. Both have warned against the consequences of a failure. The odds against concluding the round have remained high despite the lip service multilateralism has received over the years. Repeated failures to adhere to negotiating deadlines have induced a sense of scepticism, if not cynicism, over the final outcome. More than nine years after the start of the round, few people are willing to bet on a wrap-up any time soon. In fact, the possibility of a total failure is not ruled out, although trade negotiators, meeting periodically at Geneva, have been working hard for a consensus on some of the key contentious issues. In several ways, the world's major trading nations are moving away from the spirit of multilateral trade. For instance, there has been a strong preference among countries, India included, for bilateral ‘free trade' agreements, which, generally, take less time to forge and promise almost immediate results. However, it is not in the best interests of either trade or individual countries that a slew of bilateral pacts should dominate international trade. Going by the experience, these pacts lead to hegemony by the rich countries over the poor as well as discrimination and distortion in trade practices.

A multilateral trade agreement governed by uniform rules and procedures would help avoid such traps. Besides, it would give all member countries access to the disputes settlement body of the WTO, an institution through which the smallest member countries can direct the richest to stop distorting trade practices. Absent an agreement, the rule of law the WTO helped establish would be at risk of being considerably diluted. Even worse, the WTO might find itself becoming irrelevant. The irony is that after the global economic crisis of 2007 the world's leading economies have become acutely aware of the interdependence among them. The G20 countries, which tried to assume leadership of the global economy, bravely tried to find global solutions to common economic and social problems. The Seoul Summit of 2010 wanted the Doha round to be completed by 2011. However, with economic recovery spreading to the richer countries, there have been fewer compulsions to cooperate. On the contrary, jobless growth in the United States has stoked protectionist sentiment. At this juncture, the outlook for the Doha round is anything but bright.