EDITORIAL : THE HINDU, INDIA

Looking forward to good rains

The south-west monsoon, which provides about 80 per cent of the rainfall that India receives annually, sets the pace for the country's economy. Shortfalls in the monsoon not merely affect agriculture but set off reverberations in other sectors too. There will, therefore, be relief all round that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has, in its seasonal forecast issued on Tuesday, predicted that this year's monsoon is “most likely to be normal.” The IMD has used a statistical model to predict the probabilities for the monsoon falling in one of five categories: deficient (where the total nationwide rainfall is less than 90 per cent of the long-period average); below normal (from 90 per cent to 96 per cent); normal (96 per cent to 104 per cent); above normal (104 per cent to 110 per cent); and excess (above 110 per cent). The ‘normal' as defined in the IMD's probabilistic forecast is very different from the normal in the vocabulary of atmospheric scientists. In the latter case, it refers to a monsoon when the rainfall is between 90 per cent and 110 per cent of the long-period average. However, when the probabilities for the middle three categories are added, the chances of a ‘normal' monsoon (in the sense used by scientists) will work out to 93 per cent. The rainfall data for over a century show that such a ‘normal' monsoon occurs in seven out of ten years. In other words, there is a greatly heightened probability of the monsoon turning out to be normal this year. By the same token, the prospect of a deficient monsoon, which always arouses the most concern, is put at just six per cent this year. That too is good news since such deficient monsoons have occurred in about 18 per cent of the years and, what is more worrying, on three occasions in the last 10 years. The chances of this year's monsoon turning excess are put at just one per cent.

The outlook for the monsoon can change in the coming months and this year's outcome is particularly difficult to forecast. Last year's monsoon was helped by a La Nina that began to develop in June, with the waters of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean turning cooler than usual. That La Nina has weakened. This transition phase is difficult to predict and the models are currently displaying a range of possibilities. A majority of the models suggest the present La Nina conditions could continue till June and then weaken further, according to the IMD. The question is whether this could set the stage for an El Nino to develop, with the equatorial Pacific becoming warmer than usual. An El Nino often adversely affects the monsoon and has been associated with 65 per cent of the drought years. Changes in the Indian Ocean too can have an impact. Let us hope that the IMD's prediction for a normal monsoon holds.

Elusive development goals

The latest reality check on global progress to make the world more inclusive presents mixed results. The Global Monitoring Report 2011 (GMR) on the Millennium Development Goals, prepared jointly by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, makes it clear that, despite some progress, key targets will remain elusive when the 2015 deadline is reached. There are positive signs that the goals relating to parity in primary and secondary education, completion of primary education, access to safe drinking water, and halving extreme poverty and hunger can be met. But there is cause for serious concern in the areas of child and maternal mortality and access to sanitation. One reason for this uneven progress is that access-based goals, such as education, are easier to achieve than those that can be measured by specific outcomes, such as healthcare. What emerges from this year's GMR, based on impact evaluations in health and education, is that, while the quantity of services has increased, the quality has not improved. Correcting this will be the key challenge that nations face in their endeavour to make the world less unjust. The mixed global picture, however, serves only a limited, albeit important purpose: to know how the world has fared in respect of the MDGs. And the answer is ‘not encouraging.' More critically, policies and institutions that are central to a country's ability to meet the MDGs are just not up to the challenge.

The performance of individual countries within this global picture is at least as important. Well-conceived and sincerely implemented policies can make the difference to people in countries that have to shake off persistent poverty. The GMR makes special mention of the economic growth witnessed in China and India as a positive factor in the world's progress towards MDGs. However, high economic growth rates do not at all mean inclusive growth. Further, absolute figures on poverty reduction do not tell the complete tale. Methodological issues aside, even if one looks at the rate of decline of poverty in India, it was 12.4 per cent between 1977-78 and 1987-88 compared with only 8.5 per cent between 1993-94 and 2004-05, as the recently released Chronic Poverty Report points out. Even going by the low poverty line measure that prevails in India, it is still home to the world's largest number of poor, estimated at 301.7 million. Herein is the clearest indication that present policies in India are ill-equipped to correct chronic poverty.