Brash move on Act may also constrain Key
Don Brash is living up to his name with an attempted take-over of the Act Party. His bid to come into Parliament at the head of Act sounds unprecedented in politics until it is remembered how he came to lead the National Party briefly. Yesterday, it was exactly nine years since Dr Brash suddenly announced his resignation as governor of the Reserve Bank to stand for Parliament at the invitation of National Party president Michelle Boag.
He was given a high place on the party list, became its finance spokesman as a new MP and was elected leader the following year. He had been parachuted in when National was at a low ebb and he led the party back to within one seat of victory at the 2005 election. Now he believes he can work a similar wonder for Act.
National's small supporting party will struggle at this year's election, relying as it does on Rodney Hide's ability to hold the Epsom seat. Epsom voters, like most others, will have been appalled by Mr Hide's part in permitting a child-identity thief to enter Parliament. He also used the sort of perk he once prided himself on "busting", fell out with former deputy Heather Roy and devoted himself to a drastic reform of Auckland's local government.
Dr Brash is so certain of Mr Hide's demise that he is planning to form a rival party if Mr Hide does not step aside for him. Mr Hide is unlikely to do that. He prides himself on having survived predictions of his demise at every election he has fought. He is plainly enjoying his role in the Government, has worked hard to get where he is and will want to see the verdict of his electorate.
The Brash plan is for John Banks to stand for Act in Epsom. He believes the former mayor would be more acceptable to Epsom than Mr Hide now, and could better take advantage of the opening that National has indicated it will leave for its partner.
When the Prime Minister said National would concentrate on the party vote in Epsom, he would have known of the challenge Mr Hide was about to face. John Key would no doubt sooner deal with Mr Hide than the less compromising Dr Brash, but he needs a potential partner to survive the election. Right now a Brash-Banks party, whether it is Act or a new creation, looks a better bet.
But it would be a different party. Dr Brash would put Act's founding principles to the fore, where they have never been since it began to win seats under Richard Prebble's leadership. Mr Prebble, to the eternal chagrin of its founder Sir Roger Douglas, decided Act could never win enough votes on dry economic policies and campaigned mainly on law and order and other mainstream concerns.
Mr Hide has maintained that strategy, though his ability to sound tough on crime this time has been tarnished by the identity thief who conceived Act's "three strikes" law.
Dr Brash has a problem of his own to overcome if he re-enters politics. He resigned before the publication of a book that he feared would expose details of an affair. In the event, the author used only leaked emails of a political nature that suggested he was hiding an unpopular economic agenda.
National may have been uncomfortable with its former leader's rigid economic rationalism, but Act would not be. Dr Brash did not enter politics the last time for personal ambition and nor is that his motive now. He is driven by concern at the economy's drift back into debt and high spending deficits, and at policies he calls "race-based" for the advancement of Maori.
He would be a greater irritant to the Key Government than Mr Hide has been, and the Government's economic direction could be better for that. With or without Act, he is back.
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