Two-state solution is still the best way
On Thursday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said if peace talks with Israel don't restart by September, France will help promote the international recognition of a Palestinian state. Peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel broke down last September after a freeze on Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank expired.
Mr Sarkozy's remarks were made at least partly out of frustration at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's response to the reconciliation between the two major Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, which was brokered in Cairo. In a televised speech at the end of last month when the reconciliation was first announced, Mr Netanyahu said: ''The Palestinian Authority must choose either peace with Israel or peace with Hamas. There is no possibility for peace with both.''
After learning of Mr Sarkozy's support for the recognition of Palestinian independence, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she doesn't think such unilateral steps are helpful to the peace process. She may be right in sticking with the two-state solution, but the French president's statement _ which is similar to remarks British Prime Minister David Cameron made to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday _ shows clearly the way the winds are blowing in the Middle East.
For one thing, the declaration of Palestinian independence is coming up for a vote before the United Nations General Assembly in September and it is likely that it will pass with or without the support of France and Britain. But perhaps even more important than that vote _ which will not settle the really thorny issues like border demarcation and the Palestinian right of return _ is the wave of upheaval of old established authority sweeping across the Middle East. It is this upheaval which forced a reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, because the leadership of both groups realised that they would be made irrelevant if they didn't stop bickering and start working for the people. It is also obviously what enabled Egypt to facilitate the reconciliation. Since its people forced out Hosni Mubarak last February, Egypt has rapidly grown in importance in the region. It has also begun to chart a new course in foreign policy that isn't checked off by Washington beforehand.
Besides restoring relations with Iran, Egypt has permanently opened the border crossing with Gaza, much weakening Israel's partial blockade on the Palestinian territory, which has been under the control of Hamas. Israel decried the move, saying it would allow Hamas to build up its ''terrorist machine''.
Egypt has long been marginalised in terms of its influence, and its re-emergence as a regional leader brings a whole new dynamic to the Israeli-Palestinian situation.
However, while frustration at the on-again, mostly off-again peace negotiations is driving the international campaign to unilaterally recognise Palestine, almost everyone - and certainly Mr Sarkozy and Mr Cameron, as well as Egypt's interim leadership - realises that Mrs Merkel is correct in her belief that a two-state solution is the only chance for real stability and security.
As Mr Netanyahu said: ''A serious quest for peace can only happen through negotiation ... not a UN dictat.''
Yet Mr Netanyahu and his government can hardly be said to be on a ''serious quest for peace'', especially as long as new settlement construction continues in the West Bank, something that the entire international community, including the US, has condemned. But although the Israeli government probably is most responsible for the lack of peace, Israelis in general cannot be blamed for their suspicions of Hamas, which officially doesn't recognise Israel's right to exist.
However, it is unreasonable to use this point as a justification to reject diplomacy and the resumption of peace talks, since as it stands now Israel is not allowing Palestine to exist as a state.
The two issues holding up a resumption of peace talks are Hamas' refusal to recognise Israel and Israel's refusal to stop settlement construction.
A way out of the dilemma would be if Israel promises to stop construction on the condition that Hamas recognises Israel and Hamas promises to recognise Israel on the condition that Israel stops construction.
The negotiations could begin from there, with neither side having given up anything and the whole world watching and hoping that a spirit of reason will win the day.
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