Vital accord for Palestine
The intra-Palestinian reconciliation accord signed in Cairo on May 4 is a significant achievement and therefore a cause for measured celebration. Signed in the presence of Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, who belongs to Fatah, and Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas, the agreement ends four years of estrangement between the two main rival groups. Bitter fighting in June 2007 compelled Fatah forces to move out of Gaza, which Hamas, isolated from the international mainstream, has been administering since then. Fatah barricaded itself in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Despite being courted by Israel, the United States, and the so-called moderate Arab states, there was, deep down, a realisation within the Fatah core that the grand vision of establishing a viable Palestinian state was achievable only if the Palestinian people stood united, with Hamas fully on board. With the signing of the accord, the foundations of Palestinian unity have been re-laid. A road map envisaging the formation of a national unity government, which will comprise mainly technocrats, to lead the Palestinian people towards fresh elections now awaits implementation.
The accord is bound to lift the spirits of the stateless Palestinians, whose loyalties over the past four years have been torn between the Islamist Hamas and the secular, but increasingly pro-western Fatah. The unity accord also signals the arrival of the ‘Arab Spring' at the doorstep of Palestine. It is extremely unlikely that the agreement would have been signed without a change of leadership in Cairo brought about by Egypt's youthful uprising. By doggedly pursuing both Palestinian factions to break common ground, Egypt's transitional government has demonstrated the first signs of a strategic shift in its thinking: the ground rules of the alliance between Egypt and Israel as interpreted during the Mubarak era have changed. Aligning itself with the Arab awakening, Iran, an ally of Hamas, is also showing significant enthusiasm to re-engage with Egypt. But two major obstacles have to be cleared before ordinary Palestinian can experience tangible change. The world needs to persuade Israel to work with a united Palestinian leadership. There are precedents in history, notably the example of Northern Ireland where an engagement with the IRA, a militant force comparable in its tactics with Hamas, emerged as the centrepiece of a peace accord. On its part, Hamas would do well to realise that its future lies not in rejecting the existence of Israel; it lies in working unitedly and vigilantly with its partners for an honourable and viable two-state solution, based on mutual respect.
Unlike in past decades, when governments had a larger role as economic players, national development plans now are set against the backdrop of the state's gradual withdrawal from economic activities. Flowing from this shift is the need for the state to redefine its role as a strong regulator and policy-setter, directing the economy towards the set goals. India's officially proclaimed economic goal of ensuring that high growth rates are also inclusive is mostly empty rhetoric. The Eleventh Plan's strategy was to ensure that key sectors of the economy grew at acceptable rates and, secondly, to make critical interventions in the social sector. That this approach has failed to yield the desired results is evident from two official sources. The Mid-Term Appraisal (MTA) of the 11 {+t} {+h} Plan, released last year, for instance, put the likely growth rate at 8.1 per cent during the Plan period, against the targeted rate of 9 per cent. Further, sectoral contributions to the GDP fell short of expectations across the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors in all but one category, ‘personal and community services.' A more significant admission came earlier this month when the Planning Commission noted, with more than a touch of euphemism, that the “progress on inclusiveness” was “less than expected.”
The Twelfth Plan process is set to commence at a time when there is serious concern over government finances. The changing role of the state, the near-jobless growth in the primary sector, and the increasing informalisation of workforce in the secondary and tertiary sectors call for strong state action to redress poverty. Growth is important; but higher economic growth rates do not, by themselves, bring inclusiveness or a reduction of inequalities. The extent to which policymakers are able to carry forward the apparently conflicting objectives of stepping up government's role as the ‘agent of change' and maintaining fiscal prudence will determine how successful they are in lifting millions out of poverty. Equally important is policy-setting that mainstreams inclusive growth through strong regulatory and oversight mechanisms that prevent leakages. The current plan to increase spending in critical sectors such as health, education, skill development, and infrastructure is welcome. International experience demonstrates that it is easier to meet targets that are related to provision of access to social opportunities — education, for example — than those linked to outcomes, such as improving school-completion rates. But focussing on progressive outcomes will be crucial in meeting the challenge of poverty reduction and inclusiveness.
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