Wild geese still fly
They called him the face of terrorism but he died faceless as he was mowed down by American bullets. In a few hours was consigned to the sea off the coast of Afghanistan with minimum publicity.
For some it was closure to the tragedies of 9/11 and for others it was the end of a blood-soaked chapter in modern terrorism. From the days of the Red Army, the Baader Meinhof gang, the Khmer Rouge and IRA, terrorism has converted from rebellion to a full-scale industry. Bin Laden took it to another level by masterminding the aircraft attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and became the master of the macabre game. As his legend grew, largely nourished by the inability of the US and its allies to track him down, there was also a certain aura of invincibility.
That branding has collapsed but there are now so many splinter groups that have sprouted in various parts of the world that terrorism is still a commodity that can be exported at will and if the price is right. The wild geese have a larger flock and are capable of growing wilder with mercenaries available in battalion size for the right price.
Disenchantment feeds the beast and the comforting part is that recent developments underscoring people power have marginalised the symbolic leaders like Bin Laden, who have used the latent outrage of social injustice and poverty to feed its ranks and increase them. It will be very difficult for fragmented terrorist groups to generate the necessary togetherness or sense of purpose to create another cult figure like Bin Laden — largely because the base population in the global village is no longer so easily led astray and has discovered that it can stand on its own without the need to pick up arms.
On the contrary, in present circumstances, what one has to be cautious of is the retaliatory actions of the less organised groups who might target at will and with such arbitrariness that no one could possibly second guess them. To that extent all the world can do is exercise greater vigilance, but the destruction of the Bin Laden saga does mark, to a tangible extent, the beginning of the end of the past forty years of extremism that have held sway in the world.
A change of policy in Cairo
In a major policy shift, Egypt has called upon the United States to extend support to the declaration of an independent Palestinian state.
Previously reticent on the issue of the Palestinian initiative which has obtained the support of some key South American states, Egypt is now seen leaning towards the same. Post-Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian transition government’s moves seem to be geared towards changing the perception vis-à-vis its long-standing policy on the Palestine-Israel issue.
In fact, the Egyptian foreign minister Nabil al-Araby recently reiterated his country’s full support of the Palestinian independence declaration. He also urged Washington to view the recently Cairo-brokered unity deal between Fatah and Hamas as a positive development. The US has been ‘cool’ about the coming together of the estranged Palestinian factions since it views Hamas as a terrorist organisation. For Washington, any unity Palestinian government must renounce violence against Israel and recognise its existence before any talks are held. Israel of course, has rejected any talks with a Palestinian government inclusive of Hamas.
Irrespective of how the situation develops on that front, the question here is how Egypt plays its cards. No doubt Egyptian influence is crucial for both Israel and the United States.
Since Egypt has always been at the forefront of talks with both Israel and the Palestinians, the new change in attitude in Cairo may prove a bit unsettling for Washington and Tel Aviv. Moreover, this may also cause some hurdles for Cairo as it seeks financial aid from the US to make up for the vast economic losses incurred during the pre-Mubarak ouster weeks. However, the future of Egyptian politics is at present in an amorphous stage. After the departure of Mubarak and three decades of a one-man oppressive rule, future politicians are likely to formulate their agendas in line with popular sentiment on the street. That, unequivocally tilts towards a separate Palestine state.
It will be interesting to see the developments that take place over the next few months. The idea behind the unilateral declaration of an independent Palestinian state has risen from sheer frustration over the non-ending impasse stemming from Israel’s obduracy on key policy issues that are only detrimental for the Palestinians and in total negation of the previously agreed settlement proposals.
The idea of the Palestinian state declaration is catching on despite strong objection from Israel and the US. In case Egypt decides to recognise an independent Palestinian state on the same footing as the Latin states, then this might become a major issue for its Jewish neighbour. It may also set a precedent in the Arab world with other regional states supporting the initiative, thus putting additional pressure on Israel.
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