The House of Representatives passed bills on integrated reform of the social security and tax systems at a plenary meeting Tuesday. This marked a significant step toward the nation's fiscal reconstruction and social security reform.
The set of bills--with an increase in the consumption tax rate as the centerpiece--was approved by the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and its junior partner, People's New Party, and also by the two main opposition parties, the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito.
We applaud the fact that nearly 80 percent of lower house legislators voted for the bills on the consumption tax increase.
The nation's political parties should ensure the bills pass the House of Councillors. This will require breaking free from the kind of politics that has prevented leaders from making hard decisions.
It was disappointing that as many as 57 DPJ lawmakers--mostly from groups led by former party President Ichiro Ozawa--voted against the consumption tax hike bills.
If 54 or more DPJ lawmakers leave the party, the ruling coalition would lose its majority in the lower house and become a minority government.
The ruling party's effective breakup over the bills is proof that its executives lack leadership skills.
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Take action against rebels
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will face more hardships in managing his administration if the ruling coalition becomes a minority government. While preserving his party's agreement on the reform bills with the LDP and Komeito, Noda should urgently rebuild the DPJ, which has been dysfunctional as a ruling party.
Deciding how to deal with Ozawa and other dissidents should be his first step.
When Ozawa's supporters held a meeting after the vote, they agreed to leave their next move in Ozawa's hands. "I'll have to make a decision soon," he reportedly said.
Ozawa apparently aims to shake up Noda's administration further with an eye on leaving the DPJ to form a new party.
On the surface, Ozawa insists that top priority should be placed on issues related to people's daily lives--a phrase the party trumpeted in its manifesto for the 2009 lower house election. Dig a little deeper, however, and it seems he is only interested in ensuring his and his group members' survival with an eye on the next lower house election.
Former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama also voted against the consumption tax increase bills, saying the issue was not among the policies proposed in the manifesto. Hatoyama acted as if he owned the DPJ when he then said he would not leave the party.
Hatoyama himself should seriously reflect on his role in misleading the public by promoting the impractical manifesto.
The DPJ's immature and vague policymaking process was not the only factor behind such a large number of lawmakers joining the rebellion. Part of the blame can be laid with Secretary General Azuma Koshiishi, who hinted before the vote that the party would give only lenient punishments to members who defied the DPJ leaders.
The DPJ has never expelled members just because they rebelled against the party's leadership in voting. However, passage of the comprehensive reform bills is something that Noda declared he would stake his political life on.
As a condition for his party's cooperation in Diet deliberations on the reform bills, LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki called on the DPJ leaders to strictly punish the dissenting lawmakers.
Noda expressed his intention to come down hard on the rebels. We think the DPJ top brass should impose severe punishments as soon as possible. In particular, it does not need to show any restraint in dealing with Ozawa, who has gone as far as suggesting he will establish a new party.
The DPJ's relationship of trust with the LDP and Komeito will be undermined unless it takes definite disciplinary action against the rebels. The possibility cannot be ruled out that further revolts will occur during upcoming votes in the upper house.
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Tripartite cooperation significant
At a news conference after Tuesday's vote, Noda said: "We can no longer keep passing debts on to future generations. Securing stable fiscal resources for social security programs and getting the nation's fiscal conditions back on a sound footing is the point of carrying out the integrated reform."
State debts, including those accruing from the issuance of government bonds and borrowings, amounted to about 960 trillion yen as of March 31, 2012. This is more than 7.5 million yen for every person in Japan. Furthermore, the social security budget will record a natural increase of 1 trillion yen a year as the population continues to age.
It is obvious to everyone that state finances cannot be sustained by borrowing more money to pay off debts.
Noda was forced to reshuffle his Cabinet twice this year. This is one example that shows his clumsy management of the government. But on the issue of integrated reform, he has pushed ahead without flinching. He should be lauded for this.
It is undeniable that Noda could not have come up with a scenario for legislating the reform bills without the cooperation of the LDP and Komeito.
The two opposition parties joined talks with the DPJ on revisions of the bills even though there was no guarantee the lower house would be dissolved for a general election, and voted for the bills. This was a wrenching choice for the parties to make. The LDP and Komeito, it can be said, displayed a responsible attitude befitting parties that held power for many years as a coalition government.
There are still hurdles to overcome before the final passage of the bills. But they will clear the Diet if the DPJ, LDP and Komeito maintain their "partial coalition."
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Electoral reform urgent
In the upper house, discussions must be deepened on more efficient budget spending, such as cuts in social security benefits, as well as how to lift the national economy out of deflation. To help low-income earners, who will be affected more acutely by a consumption tax increase, introduction of reduced tax rates on some items should be studied.
The three parties must tackle other pending issues in addition to the integrated reform bills. It will be necessary to pass a special bill for the issuance of deficit-covering bonds.
Reform of the lower house electoral system must not be left on the back burner. The disparity of vote values between some constituencies under the current system has been judged by the Supreme Court as being in "an unconstitutional state." However, no concrete steps have been taken to rectify this situation, which can only be described as dereliction on the part of the ruling and opposition parties.
In cooperating with the LDP and Komeito, the DPJ should give priority to correcting the vote value disparity by quickly implementing a plan to cut single-seat constituencies from five prefectures without increasing seats in other prefectures.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 27, 2012)
(Jun. 28, 2012)
Noda must suppress rebellion in vote on integrated reform
Under the current divided Diet, political progress is only possible when the ruling and opposition parties agree. If fiscal rehabilitation and social security system reform can be achieved at the initiative of the Democratic Party of Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito, it would be a hugely significant development.
Bills on integrated reform of the social security and tax systems--with an increase in the consumption tax rate as the main pillar--will finally be put to a vote in the House of Representatives plenary session Tuesday afternoon.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda commented on the agreement among the three parties on revisions to the bills at a lower house special committee to deliberate them.
"We've managed to overcome our different stances and agree on issues that clearly divide public opinion in two. This was a big step forward," Noda emphasized.
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Rebellion within DPJ
The bills will undoubtedly pass the lower house, where they are backed by the three parties and others. The ruling and opposition parties must ensure the bills pass the House of Councillors to make them into laws.
It took a long time to forge a consensus and reach this point. DPJ executives went to great lengths to coordinate support for the bills within their party.
Despite these efforts, a considerable number of DPJ lawmakers, who should be supporting the prime minister, have showed their intent to rebel during the vote--the final stage of the process. We think this is extremely regrettable.
Former DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa has been trying to unite his supporters with an eye to voting against the bills and forming a new party. He reportedly told close aides they can win the next lower house election only if they vow "no tax hikes and no nuclear power plants."
If Ozawa actually said this, his actions are nothing but maneuvers in a power struggle that will invite a national crisis.
The problem will arise when 42 or more DPJ lower house members, including Ozawa, leave the party.
If they link up with Kizuna Party, which was formed by a group of former DPJ members who split from the party late last year, they will have enough numbers to submit a no-confidence motion against the Noda Cabinet.
Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has suggested that if Ozawa leads the submission of a no-confidence motion, the LDP must consider voting for it.
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Don't nullify 3-party agreement
The LDP and Komeito would be left in an awkward spot if they have to respond to such a motion. If the motion passed the lower house before the integrated reform bills clear the upper house, and the lower house is dissolved for a general election, the three-party agreement on the bills would be nullified and the strenuous efforts to make a deal would all go down the drain.
This situation must be avoided by all means.
Noda told a meeting of DPJ lower house members: "If we keep kicking the can of reform down the road, this country will collapse. We shouldn't run away from a national crisis; rather we should face up to it. I'd like to make such politics a reality." He called on the DPJ lawmakers to stand together and vote for the bills.
We believe that not every member of the groups led by Ozawa and former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama aim to topple the Cabinet. Many of them must be aware of Japan's critical fiscal situation and the necessity of rebuilding the nation's social security system, and thus are thinking about voting for the bills.
Noda and DPJ executives including Secretary General Azuma Koshiishi should do everything in their power to persuade every DPJ member to vote for the bills. The strength of the Noda administration will be on the line when the bills are put to a vote.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 26, 2012)
(Jun. 27, 2012)
Can an Islamist-led govt coexist with Egypt's military?
Mohammed Morsi, the candidate fielded by the Muslim Brotherhood, was declared the winner Sunday in the Egyptian presidential runoff election held earlier this month.
Electing their own president in their first free election following the region's "Arab Spring" revolutionary democracy movements is a historic achievement for the people of Egypt, a great power in the Middle East and North Africa.
But it remains to be seen whether Egypt's democratization will prove successful. This is not only because there is no affinity between Islamism and democracy, but because the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the interim ruler of the country, may not relinquish power.
The extent to which Morsi will be able to advance democratization while avoiding confrontation with the military remains uncertain.
Morsi gained about 52 percent of the vote, just ahead of his rival, former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. The rise in the power of Islamism in the aftermath of the collapse of the former Egyptian regime led by Hosni Mubarak continued in the presidential election. But nearly half of Egyptians are still anxious about the Brotherhood.
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Islamism vs secularism
After being declared the election winner, Morsi said, "I am a president for all Egyptians," thus emphasizing his stance of giving consideration to secular elements. He also said he has respect for the military.
The statements apparently reflect his intention to overcome the nation's polarization into Islamism and secularism.
But the road to this goal will be a rocky one.
In the first place, the SCAF has greatly restricted the authority of the president's office. In addition, Morsi's support base is weak.
The SCAF has dissolved the country's parliament, in which the Brotherhood was the dominant force. The SCAF has issued amendments to a "constitutional declaration" that is equivalent to a provisional constitution, thereby grabbing powers over legislation and the appointment of those who will draft a new national charter. This will make it possible for the SCAF to intervene in the process of formulating a new constitution.
These developments will considerably delay a real transition to civilian control.
But it is to be noted that one factor behind the difficulty in creating a new constitution is that the Islamist forces themselves failed to smoothly select drafters of a charter in the parliament.
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Mutual concessions vital
Whether Islamist forces and the military can make concessions to each other to work toward an early formulation of a new constitution is the key to progress in the country's democratization.
The Egyptian economy is in dire straits. Last year's political upheaval directly impacted tourism, a major industry of the country, and led to a drop in foreign investment. The country's foreign exchange reserves dropped sharply. The military administration has been holding talks with the International Monetary Fund to obtain financial aid.
If Egypt is to restore public safety and reconstruct its economy through international assistance, it is essential for the president-elect and the military to cooperate with each other.
Islamist forces have been on the rise in Arab countries where long-ruling autocrats have been overthrown. Will democratization move ahead after all in Egypt? How the Morsi-led government will turn out is a crucial test for the future of the region.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, June 26, 2012)
(Jun. 27, 2012)
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