EDITORIAL : THE DAWN, PAKISTAN

Balochistan unrest

SEPARATISTS and nationalists, secular political party workers, settlers, Hazaras, policemen, civilians killed by landmines and IEDs — is anyone safe in Balochistan anymore? The last few days and weeks have seen the front pages of newspapers filled with stories of all shades of violence in the province, whether sectarian, Islamist, political or ethnic. The Awami National Party has been the latest victim, but the day before the Kuchlak blast saw the discovery of the dead bodies of six miners — likely settlers from Swat — and dozens of Hazaras have been killed this year. Alongside these stories have been running reports of the Supreme Court’s persistent efforts to get security forces to produce missing people in court and restore law and order.

But the SC has done about as much as it can, and its limited success so far points to the real roadblocks standing in the way of peace in Balochistan: the issue of missing persons requires a political solution spearheaded by a committed federal government and accompanied by a change in the mindset of security agencies. Underpinning all of this will have to be a genuine resolve to address the concerns of Baloch nationalists and even separatists; measures like Aghaz-i-Huqooq-i-Balochistan are important, but will not be enough. Prime Minister Gilani’s government had made feeble attempts to bring Baloch leaders to the negotiating table, and the new prime minister has made a similar effort through his call for talks in Quetta yesterday. But nothing has come out of such rhetoric in the past, and there will be no movement until capable interlocutors with contacts and respect among Baloch leaders are given a concrete mandate to launch talks in a meaningful way, through back channels if necessary. That would also provide a basis to ask security agencies to rein in their zeal to ‘disappear’ people with real and imagined links to separatist activities.

When it comes to the broader law and order problem, however, the provincial government has a larger role to play, and is failing miserably. It is true that the Raisani government has limited room to manoeuvre; despite, for example, repeated declarations that the Frontier Corps should report to the provincial administration, most recently at the end of May, the organisation is widely perceived to operate outside civilian control. But policing is also inadequate, failing to prevent the kidnappings and killings of settlers and Hazaras, and provincial lawmakers are perceived as being corrupt and more concerned with personal feuds than the province’s law-and-order and development problems. Along with the federal government, they continue to let the people of Balochistan down.

Moody’s downgrade

THE downgrade of Pakistan’s sovereign creditworthiness was neither unexpected, nor will it affect the country’s economic fortunes (or rather misfortunes?) At worst, it may have a psychological impact on the markets, which are already edgy on account of the same reasons that have led Moody’s to demote Pakistan’s bond ratings. The country’s economic outlook remains negative, and it is unlikely to change in the short to medium term unless we put our house in order.

The key drivers debilitating the country’s economy include its eroding capacity to finance its budget owing to its inability to raise domestic tax revenues or to repay its foreign loans because of drying foreign official and private inflows and a rising trade deficit.

Needless to say that its political problems are keeping the coalition government’s focus away from taking tough policy decisions to improve business confidence and addressing structural weaknesses, such as addressing growing energy shortages and increasing domestic revenues. The downgrade of sovereign creditworthiness should sound a warning to the country’s policymakers. The government has already defaulted on its (domestic) sovereign obligations to the IPPs only a few weeks ago.

And the possibility of Pakistan defaulting on its foreign debt repayments over the next couple of years cannot be ruled out with the large $6.3bn in principal and interest falling due because of the IMF between 2013 and 2015. With foreign private capital moving into safer assets due to the eurozone debt crisis, Islamabad can avoid a repeat of the 2008 crisis only with the help of official bilateral and multilateral creditors and donors like the IMF and the World Bank. While the US has promised to resume disbursement of suspended Coalition Support Funds of $1.2bn following the reopening of Nato supply routes, that is not enough to resolve our medium- to long-term balance of payment woes. The government will ultimately have to go to the IMF for another loan. This time it may have to accept even tougher conditions for the Fund’s help. And those conditions will not be easy to implement in the absence of a stable domestic political environment.

Divisions in Asean

THE dispute over some resource-rich islands in the South China Sea is assuming menacing proportions, with the just concluded Asean summit failing to issue a joint communiqué that could signal a united stand on the issue. Four Asean members — Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam — resist China’s claims to the islands, known as Scarborough Shoal, but do not find support among other Asean members. Apparently the eight other members resisted the demand by the Philippines and Vietnam that the joint communiqué contain a reference to the dispute with China. This split on the Shoal is in direct contrast to the unanimity Asean members showed a few days earlier by adopting a common code of conduct on shipping and other maritime issues. Since its foundation by five countries in 1967, Asean membership has grown to 10 because of the success of the common economic policies the members have followed. Yet the Shoal issue has prevented the grouping for the first time in its 45-year history from issuing a joint communiqué.

Behind the regional dispute lurks the presence of America and China in the Asia-Pacific region. Even though the two countries continue to remain committed to a policy of friendship, serious misgivings exist on both sides, with Beijing accusing Congress of erecting barriers to Chinese imports and American congressional leaders seeing a threat to US interests in China’s growing military muscle. However, meeting on the sidelines of the Asean summit, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jeichi talked friendship and promised to work together. Publicly, America has pledged not to take sides in the Shoal dispute, but China has often seen American policies as subtle moves designed to check Beijing’s influence in the region. How things go in the Asia-Pacific region will basically by decided by these two powers.