Aleppo’s conundrum
There has been an upsurge in violence across Syria. President Bashar Al Assad having promised Russia not to use heavy arsenal against his own people seems to be in a fix. But reports say that helicopters, air force fighter jets and tanks are being used against dissidents, which hints at the flare in fighting in response to hit-and-run attacks from the opposition militant outfits.
The fact that formal troops stationed on the borders with Turkey have been called in to serve in Aleppo, the second biggest theatre of uprising, is a worrisome proposition. This is definitely bound to give an impetus to the troops already inside Aleppo – apparently forcing the regime to make an attempt to crush the rebel elements. While both sides seem to be in a warring mood with no inclination for a negotiated settlement, days and weeks to come might witness renewed fighting and human rights violations.
The problem while handling the crisis in Syria is that it is compounded with utter confusion. The poles of power are so repelling that a meaningful interaction has been lacking. On the one hand, the United States and many of the Western countries want Assad to exit, and at the same time they are bothered with the fallout that this vacuum will bring to the entire region, especially with relevance to the uneasy peace that Syria has lived with Israel and its neighbours. The refugee exodus on the borders with Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, thus, is more than enough to unnerve the region, as a complete implosion would result in redrawing the demographic and socio-political realities of the Middle East.
The softer tone of diplomacy practicised by UN special envoy Kofi Annan is not getting any results. Moreover, the hype that Russia has raised over Western efforts meant for shaking the dispensation in Damascus has pushed the entire issue in a Cold War-like decorum. This is only resulting in more and more killings at the hands of the government and the rebel forces. With more than 16,000 deaths in a year of uprising, Syria is a perfect flashpoint for intervention. It remains to be seen how geopolitical considerations come to carve out a solution that is in wanting. It’s time to take up the Syrian issue more seriously than pronouncing it on paper resolutions. If the Six-Point peace plan is not working, now is the time to either fine tune it or replace it with a new one. There is no logic in counting the dead, as stakeholders play on a guessing game.
Transition in Egypt
There is no dearth of alternatives when it comes to forming a government in Egypt. The nomination of Hesham Kandil as the new Prime Minister must have surprised many, but it has gone well into the script the strife-torn country has witnessed since the uprising in Tahrir Square that changed the politics of the region for good.
President Mohammad Mursi was certainly at pains in picking up a chief executive for his government, and the issue was further compounded with the powerful military spelling out its preferences for the job. The suspension of the popularly elected parliament, dominated by the Islamists, and the scrapping of powers vested in the office of the president have literally left the transition in Egypt tasteless — and certainly not the one for which the Egyptians struggled. Now it remains to be seen what difference the low profile Kandil can make on the political spectrum that has been torn into two authoritative zones between the army and the presidency.
The litmus test for Mursi and his nominee, Kandil, will come when they will opt for candidates of credentials for the high profile ministries of foreign affairs, defence and homeland security affairs. With the army unrelenting in its approach, and more than eager to preserve the status quo that former dictator Hosni Mubarak blessed it, it is going to be a war of attrition between the organs of the state. Unfortunately, the judiciary is not in a position to assert itself, as working under the circumference of the constitution there is hardly any room for change. Mursi on his part, notwithstanding the radical agenda that his party the Muslim Brotherhood propagates, has walked a finer line and exhibited a reconciliatory trend with the army and other political stakeholders. To what extent the mathematics works in empowering the people is difficult to guess at this point of time. Transition in Egypt is still a painful exercise.
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