Revise anti-tsunami plans to meet new worst case
What were the weaknesses in measures taken so far to guard against massive tsunami? The government must analyze the situation thoroughly and make the best use of lessons to be drawn from it in working out future disaster plans.
The government's Central Disaster Prevention Council on Wednesday decided to review conventional tsunami countermeasures. The panel, chaired by Prime Minister Naoto Kan, agreed to set up an expert group to work out a draft review by autumn.
Major tsunami can strike at any time or place in Japan, an earthquake-prone country. Every effort must be made to eliminate unpreparedness on the grounds that certain disasters cannot be foreseen.
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Ferocity underestimated
The combined toll of those dead or missing in the Great East Japan Earthquake has surpassed 25,000.
Previously, the Central Disaster Prevention Council estimated that no more than 2,700 people would die in a tsunami in or near the region that was struck by the March 11 tsunami. But the actual number of victims far exceeded that figure. The estimate prior to the latest disaster was based on data from tsunami disasters of the past, but the council underestimated the maximum possible height of a catastrophic tsunami.
The construction of seawalls and selection of temporary shelters in the event of a major disaster were conducted under the premise of tsunami far less ferocious than those that actually hit. The result was that the tsunami surged over the seawalls in many coastal areas, while temporary shelters were submerged in many parts of the disaster region.
The government must begin crafting stronger anti-tsunami measures using greater estimates of maximum possible tsunami heights by researching ones that took place in the more remote past and over far wider areas than those that have so far been taken into account.
In the areas hit by the devastating earthquake this time, it had recently come to light that a massive tsunami swept deeply inland after a big earthquake that struck the region in 869 during the Jogan period of the Heian era (794-1192). The government council, however, failed to take the Jogan earthquake into consideration in estimating tsunami heights.
It is especially urgent to draw up tsunami countermeasures for major quakes that are believed possible at any time, namely the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes. The council, however, has fallen short of fully discussing the possibility of those three devastating earthquakes taking place almost simultaneously.
In the Great East Japan Earthquake, it is believed that a large number of quakes took place in rapid succession across an extensive area in the sea off Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima and Ibaraki prefectures. The ensuing tsunami was far greater than one that would have occurred in the case of a single earthquake, wreaking immense havoc in almost all coastal areas facing the hypocentral region.
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N-risks must be reviewed
It is essential to study in depth the possibility of the Tokai and the two other earthquakes occurring nearly simultaneously with each other.
The government of Kochi Prefecture, which faces the sea beneath which lies the likely focus of the expected Nankai earthquake, has been urging the central government to review the current earthquake damage projections as soon as possible for fear of a giant tsunami in that part of the country.
Assumptions regarding tsunami damage to nuclear power plants naturally must also be reconsidered.
The government appears to be reluctant to strengthen measures against tsunami now because the crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant has yet to be brought under control--but taking such steps is definitely a matter of urgency in regard to nuclear power plants.
The government's negative stance toward discussions of the problem could aggravate public anxiety over the safety of nuclear power complexes.
Showa era holds lessons for the troubles of today
Showa Day, which begins the Golden Week holiday period, was originally observed as the Emperor's Birthday during the Showa era (1926-1989).
The National Holidays Law sets aside April 29 as a day to reflect on the Showa era, a period during which Japan accomplished reconstruction after turbulent days, and to think about the nation's future.
Now, at a time when we must find all possible ways to overcome the hardships caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake, many people must harbor hope for the future, recalling those postwar days when we picked ourselves up from a devastated land.
We should make it a day to thoroughly consider the gravity of Showa-era events and consider what we should learn from them.
It is now unthinkable, but there was once persistent opposition from some people against a plan to establish Showa Day.
In the beginning of the Heisei era, the Emperor's Birthday on April 29 was changed to Greenery Day.
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A holiday sought by the people
After that, a grass-roots movement calling for the establishment of Showa Day became active. However, some newspapers made an issue of this, saying Emperor Showa should be held responsible for the war, and objected to the movement by saying Showa Day was not a suitable national holiday for the people to celebrate.
In 2005, a lawmaker-proposed bill to revise the National Holidays Law was approved by a majority vote with the support of the Liberal Democratic Party, New Komeito, the Democratic Party of Japan and other parties. In 2007, April 29 was changed to Showa Day.
Showa Day, which marked its fifth year this year, seems to have firmly taken root among the public.
The construction of Showa towns that reproduce old cityscapes is under way in places including Ome, Tokyo, and Bungotakada, Oita Prefecture. In Kawasaki and Kitakyushu, tours of factories that supported the country's high economic growth in that period are popular.
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'A period of hope'
The Yomiuri Shimbun asked in a recent opinion survey about impressions of three periods--before and after World War II in the Showa era, and the Heisei era.
The predominant answers were "period of poverty" for the Showa era before World War II, "period of hope" for the Showa era after World War II, and "period of wide disparity" for the Heisei era.
During the postwar reconstruction period, people's lives were poorer than now, but people were full of vitality as they looked toward the future. This led to the country's high economic growth.
However, the days of a continuously growing economy are over, with the population rapidly aging while the birthrate remains chronically low. People are concerned that the social security system and public finances may collapse. The recent natural disasters thus have struck a Japanese society that was already smothered in a sense of helplessness.
Tomorrow, The Yomiuri Shimbun will launch a new long-term series titled "Showa era."
Now, at a time when Japan needs a vision to give people courage and hope, we can surely draw various lessons through looking back on the history of the Showa era.
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