The crisscross over Libya
Libya is now haunting the West. The NATO’s bomb-and-fly away strategy seems to have backfired, as there are no signs of Tripoli’s early fall.
The embattled leader Col Muammar Gaddafi, who had earlier hinted at bowing down for talks with the rebels, is now dictating more and more terms. This chaos would not have occurred had the Western powers and the United States not indulged in a kneejerk reaction while opting for a military solution over Libya. The British and French obsession to make Gaddafi kneel down has cost the entire region peace and stability. Besides, the oil-exporting country’s socio-economic infrastructure has been destroyed beyond recognition. This is in addition to the human exodus that has been rendered displaced and dispossessed.
The persisting military deadlock over Libya is quite problematic. The widening rift between NATO and the US is now no more over attaining a military solution, rather it’s on whether to make Gaddafi survive or not. The European powers’ contention that their action is not intended for a regime change is untenable. The brutal manner in which civil and governmental installations were hit by NATO sorties, and especially the bombardment of Gaddafi’s palace goes on to suggest the obvious. This discord in strategy over Libya is bound to multiply the grievances of the people and keep the country bogged down with the irritants of aggression and civil commotion.
It’s high time the African Union and many of the regional members in the Middle East to resort back to addressing the issue in its political context, and immediately broker a dialogue between warring factions. What is really worrisome is the United Nations’ mandate to protect the civilians has been thrown to the wind, and targets are now increasingly being chosen in an un-mindful manner. The rising number of casualties that the rebels themselves have faced is a case in point. Though a realistic solution can only be achieved with the exit of Gaddafi, the route to it inadvertently lies in talking it out with the dictator. This is why Russia and the African Union, who have time and again expressed their willingness to mediate, should rise to the occasion and spell out a strategy for defusing the volatility in and around North Africa. One hopes the AU-led talks with the Libyan opposition in Addis Ababa can harness ground for a broader interaction and resolution of the dispute at hand.
The Kabul shootout
The unfortunate shootout at Kabul airport resulting in the deaths of eight NATO soldiers at the hands of an allied Afghan air force officer brings to light a serious problem. That, of the insurgents infiltration into the Afghan security forces.
While the claim by the Taleban of the incident is yet to be verified, the increasing number of such incidents raises concern. Even as the drive to boost recruitment to swell the numbers of the national security forces is given impetus, the issue of sifting and monitoring the ranks of the pro-insurgents and those committed against them is not easily solvable.
Moreover, the incidents involving civilian casualties at the hands of foreign forces also put an additional strain on loyalties of even those who may not be partial to the insurgents. Past incidents where Afghan soldiers and policemen have killed foreign soldiers have also led to an increase in mistrust among the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF).
This does not bode well for the transfer of security responsibility, from the ISAF to the national security forces. Mutual trust and coordination of responsibilities is integral to the successful completion of this crucial process, being hailed as a major benchmark. In fact, the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan is dependent on how quickly and efficiently the national forces take on the mantle of responsibility.
Full-on efforts and resources have been diverted towards the bolstering of the Afghan national army and police force in order to attain this objective. Despite scepticism from independent quarters pertaining adequate training and monitoring of the security personnel, Kabul and Washington have been increasingly confident of major improvements in this arena. Of course, reports of the large-scale desertions and authority issues and divisions within the military ranks are dismissed as propaganda. The core issue however, notwithstanding the glossing remains. Will Afghanistan’s security forces be capable of handling the security on its own?
Even if the insurgents are dealt a blow and their momentum is halted in the next phase of the counterinsurgency, the continued presence of foreign forces will prove detrimental to Kabul. It will help the insurgents mobilise the people to rise against the government.
It is time the Afghan leadership understands the dynamics at play and formulates a national strategy in keeping with the state’s interests and the local environmental factors, rather than allowing imposition of such foreign policies that are far from feasible.
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