EDITORIAL : THE DAILY OUTLOOK, AFGANISTAN

               

 

Address All Contributive Factors or Expect No Win

Violence is at its worst in Afghanistan since 2001. Before the first May, for circles who assume that United States is facing failure in Afghanistan war, the life of Osama bin Laden and his vague location was a levelheaded point and for US a question for which it had no proper answer. The strong question these circles used to ask was, "if you have failed to hunt down Osama for almost a decade, how could you claim victory against Al-Qaida and its associates?" Now no one can ask that question as Osama is dead.

But still the Afghan war seems to be moving towards failure, increased violence is a clear evidence for this. Taliban hold a strong position in all 34 provinces of Afghanistan while the government is failing to extent rule of law beyond the city of Kabul and international community is inclined towards withdrawal of its forces – the US and some of its allies have already announced that they would be withdrawing thousands of their troops by the end of this year. An important factor that is deemed to have boosted up the morale of Taliban is that Afghan government has invited them to table talks and promised them monetary rewards and asylums in foreign countries.

The widening rift between Karzai administration and its Western partners, mainly over civilian killings caused by NATO, is an upbeat point for Taliban. Another reason for the deteriorating security the rivalry between countries involved in the affairs of Afghanistan. It is widely believed that Afghanistan has been sandwiched between US-Iran and India-Pakistan. These all factors have contributed in the intensification of insurgents' operation and until and unless they are addressed, security in Afghanistan is to further worsen.

There are claims that Taliban have been driven back in their strongholds but they continue to enjoy presence in almost all the thirty four provinces of Afghanistan. More than 90 percent of districts of Afghanistan are under varying influence or control of the insurgents and there are several districts which are completely out of government control. This is what the government itself admits. With more international troops deployed in Afghanistan last year and multiplication of efforts to recruit more people to Afghan National Army and Police, the security condition has drastically deteriorated.

Afghanistan is reversing towards bad security which threats the planned development and reconstruction activities and also, the newborn democracy.
The plan of US and its allies to drawdown their forces without having the issues caused by militancy and extreme fixed is another point of concern among Afghan population and increment of violence. The pitfall of withdrawal plan is that it has given psychological support to the Taliban. Taliban are now waiting for US complete withdrawal in 2014. Even if they are defeated until then, after US withdrawal they will re-emerge. Although the Taliban have been invited to negotiations by Afghan government, Taliban have signaled no readiness and definitely would continue their activities at faster pace, as they see victory only at some years distance. So, the efforts to resolve the Afghan war through peace talks and withdrawal of foreign troops in the next four years are both in the favor Taliban.

As the graph of violence undergoes positive change, the number of civilian casualties increases either. Civilian deaths caused by NATO operation are widening the rift between Afghan government and its Western allies, mainly Afghan-US relations. Not only the civilian killings have caused diplomatic harms but also such incidents trigger the anger of common people each time and result in violent protests. As of yesterday, Hundreds of Afghans protested against the accidental killing of a teenage boy by NATO-led forces in a volatile Nangarhar province, and the district governor said one man was shot dead as police fired at the crowd after it turned violent.

A UN report this year showed that 2010 was by far the most lethal for Afghan civilians with a total of 2,777 civilians killed, up 15 percent on the previous year. While the United Nations says insurgents were responsible for 75 per cent of those deaths, it is those caused by foreign troops that angers ordinary Afghans the most. The killings of civilians by NATO, although unintentionally, have brought Afghans on the roads to protest against foreigners in this country. The right to protest is a perceived human right arising out of a number of recognized human rights. But in Afghanistan protests have been extremely violent as they provide a platform for Taliban members to attack government and foreigners. Anti-Western sentiment is also running high a month after a fundamentalist US pastor burned a Quran. The NATO needs to further work to avoid killings of civilians in order to lessen these sentiments because winning the hearts and minds of people is vital to reach success in Afghanistan war.

The lingering war and worsening security situation is also because Taliban have consistent sources that financially and logistically support them. Afghanistan is believed to be the battle field of intelligence of certain countries that have rivalry since decades. These countries have their own purpose and objectives in Afghanistan and want their interests to remain solid at any cost. The beneficiary of these negative competitions is the Taliban and insurgents. Afghanistan's neighbors and its Western backers must set aside their own enmity and let peace prevail in the lives of the people of Afghanistan.

What Afghans anticipate from the international community is to assist them attain peace, development and prosperity. A peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan is in benefit of the people living across the globe while not working to address the factors contributing to insecurity in this country would lead to further expansion of militancy and extremism to the region and the world.

Taliban to Avenge bin Laden’s Death

The deadly attack on a paramilitary training center in Pakistan has been claimed by Taliban, calling it a revenge for bin Laden, and warning that further such attacks are yet to come. The twin suicide blast killed more than 80 recruits who had just finished their training period.
Friday has been a bloody day for the recent history of Af-Pak region since the fall of Taliban, and rise of militants. There have been bomb blasts and suicide attacks across both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Friday, despite being a sacred day in Islamic tradition, has been a favorite choice for the suicide bombers of Taliban and Al-Qaeda to blow themselves up and go straight to paradise, as they are made to believe.

Friday's attack is first of its kind after the death of Osama bin Laden. And with the Taliban statement saying that they would continue such attacks for his revenge, there is terror yet to come. Al-Qaeda affiliated groups in both countries Afghanistan and Pakistan have been warning of revenge attacks. In Afghanistan, we have already seen the episode in Kandahar, when the city was besieged by suicide bombers and fighters for almost 3 days, when security forces were unable to control the situation. Frontline fighters have vowed to avenge bin Laden's death. It's very likely that they are planning major attacks in Afghanistan, as that of the one in Friday in Pakistan.

Since last year, there has been a group of activist Western journalists who are trying to prove that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda have no relationship, and it was all between Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden. The common myth being promoted is that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is a local movement for limited goals within Afghanistan. But the fact is that, Taliban have never fought for power or rule, otherwise they would have easily handed over bin Laden to the US and saved their rule in 2001. The driving force for their fighters and leadership is the Salafi Jihadi ideology. And there is no local or global difference of goals in such Jihad. It all depends on Taliban's capability. If they have the means and resources to reach and carry out a major attack in the West, Taliban will certainly do.

There are Taliban groups who have direct operational links with Al-Qaeda commanders. These relations go far beyond ideological bond. There is operational, tactical and strategic links. Afghan intelligence, the National Directorate of Security (NDS) spokesman has said Osama was an important player behind the intensifying insurgency in Afghanistan.

But there are some people who still live in denial and don't pay attention to the bloody fact that Taliban is more than just a bunch of "angry people". They are Jihadis with ideological roots, and we need to take them in that perspective.

Better to Rein in Revengeful Militants

No doubt, on May 1, a good news travelled across the globe bringing relief to the much of the world. It apprised and informed of nothing but the killing of Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan, surprisingly near the capital city of Islamabad. There was a huge sense and show of jubilation in the capital cities and leaders of the political stage of the world were shooting congratulatory messages. The attention was focused on the news itself, so thrilling and so joyous to have heard a lunatic top terrorist was humiliatingly killed after a decade of fleeing from cave to cave under the shadow of some intelligence.

As the sense of thrill subsided, the people across the world began to ask the question that how Osama Bin Laden was protected in Abbottabad and who protected him. But on Saturday, May 14, 2011 Pakistani parliament issued a resolution calling for review of ties with the United States of America. The parliament has done this action in reaction to violation of Pakistani sovereignty by the U.S. Special Forces that unilaterally raided the compound, where Osama was living.

After the security chiefs briefed Pakistani legislators, the parliament said, "Parliament ... condemned the unilateral action in Abbottabad which constitutes a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty."

The parliament also called for an end to the U.S. drone attacks, which target the militants in their hideouts in Pakistani soil. This happens while observers believe that the drone attacks should be increased and expanded and Pakistan must remove the limitations on them. The Pakistani parliament warned that Pakistan could cut supply lines to American forces in Afghanistan if there were more such attacks.

Observers and analysts on the other hand want the U.S. administration to shift its reliance on supply routes from Pakistan to middle Asian countries. While Pakistan still reels from the embarrassment caused by Osama death in its soil, it must be happy that this atrocious terrorist was killed and instead of adding to its embarrassment by issuing warnings and statements must work to rein in the terrorists and militants that have vowed to revenge for Bin laden's killing.

India is Anticipated to A Play Greater Role

The two-day visit of Indian premier to Afghanistan marks the profundity of relations based on mutual respect and a number of commonalities that both the countries have been enjoying since centuries. Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India on Friday May 13, 2011 addressed the parliament of Afghanistan. This made him the first foreign high authority to speak to Afghanistan's parliament in history. Speaking to the representatives of people he said that India would continue to support the peace and reconstruction process in Afghanistan and that terrorism was a common enemy of both the nations.

India's support to Afghanistan's prosperity is an undeniable fact. Currently billions of dollars worth development projects are being funded by the government of India. Tens of thousands of Afghan refugees are currently living in India and thousands of Afghan students have given scholarships in various universities of India. The people of Afghanistan have always welcomed Indian contribution as a chief donor to Afghanistan economic and social development.

Singh's visit comes just a few after Osama bin Laden's killing. Osama's death is deemed a major achievement in the counter-terrorism war. The United States sees the Afghan war giving positives results. Although violence has doubled, US government's reports conclude that Taliban have been driven back in their strongholds and are near to defeat. With this, the US and its allies (NATO) are eyeing to withdraw thousands of its forces from Afghanistan in the near future and gradually handover security responsibilities to Afghan security forces. It is anticipated that India, as neighbor of Afghanistan, will have to play greater role in strengthening Afghanistan before and beyond 2014.

Terrorism as a common enemy of Afghanistan and India is hampering economic and all sorts of development of both the nations and countries in the region. For a fast growing economy such as that of India, regional security is believed to have a critical role. Security in the region will continue to remain a dream until and unless the insurgency and extremism is eliminated from Afghanistan. In this regard, the world sees India's contribution as vital.