Stalemate in Yemen
Yemen’s crisis is in a deadlock mode. President Ali Abdullah Al Saleh is defiant, and seems to be unrelenting in signing on the dotted line proposed by the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The regional deal ensures an end to his decades-long rule and at the same time foresees transition of power in a peaceful manner by holding elections, accordingly. Having adopted delaying tactics for long, Saleh has now come out with another stunt, calling for early presidential elections. This is like putting the cart before the horse and literally derails all the political initiatives to find an amicable way out of the mess in Yemen. The four-month long protest, which has claimed hundreds of lives, and the ensuing unrest was meant against the reigning dictatorship of Saleh, and had bisected the poor and ungovernable country into sharp ethnic and sectarian flanks. Tactics such as these are bound to flare the sentiments, further plunging the country in chaos
and uncertainty.
It is quite unfortunate that Saleh is not reading the writing on the wall. The opposition against him is not merely political but has swollen in rank and file to various tribes countrywide. This is why the divide that was there in the form of north and south has now given way to a broader uprising with the one point agenda of seeing Saleh’s exit. Taking into account the fissures that are sweeping across the region, it would have been prudent of the president to see rationale and respect in bowing before the GCC, which guaranteed him an honourable exit within 30 days of signing and that too after appointing a caretaker government under his nose in consultation with the opposition. At least, Saleh should have seen a reason in stopping short of disgracing his own political party and supporters, who would find themselves in the wood if Saleh were forced to stand down. Once having agreed to the salient features of the GCC deal, Saleh’s ploy that he would sign it in his capacity as party chief and not as the president of the republic is disgusting — and is more than enough to surpass the tolerance level of his opponents.
This impasse in Sanaa is in need of being addressed. The GCC-backed meditation is a blessing in disguise and should be made to succeed. The regional countries and the respective leadership can do well by engaging themselves personally so that the stalemate comes to an end, and the upheaval is addressed in a pacific political manner. Saleh after three decades of rule stands to gain prestige and privilege even if he steps down in all humility.
The anti-NATO protests
The furore in Afghanistan over the latest NATO attack that killed four Afghans, including two women, has caught on with another round of protests being staged in Taloqan.
An earlier protest had led to the deaths of 12 people as the situation got out of control when security forces opened fire to stop almost 2,000 enraged protesters from looting and attacking a German base. Though there has been growing resentment against the foreign forces with every strike in which the civilians have been killed, the unusual thing about these protests is that these have taken place in the largely peaceful province of Takhar.
In addition, the Afghan government’s denial of the last NATO attack having been a joint operation has been challenged by the international security alliance. Kabul, of course, would not like to be associated with any operation that may trigger an anti-government drive at this point. President Hamid Karzai has been a vocal critic of the civilian killings at the hands of the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF).
In fact, the Afghan leader has raised this issue at every forum, urging the need to avoid any civilian death for the implications for both Kabul and the allies’ war efforts. Despite the constant warnings, and the earlier military focus on avoiding civilian casualties, one finds a regression in practice. Over the past many months there has been an increase in civilian deaths.
The problem is bigger than just quelling an odd protest in one part or the other. With the war entering a decisive phase, the insurgents are also likely to exploit the public sentiments against the Coalition. An effective mobilisation against the foreign forces may prove highly detrimental for both the Coalition and the government. While military strategists and those on the battlefront are not incorrect in explaining the difficulty in avoiding civilian casualties, it does not justify the killings. Accepting Western forces who are largely viewed as occupying forces has been hard enough for the Afghans. On top they have to contend with the massacre of women and children and unarmed civilians in accidental fire or night strikes.
It is time that the coalition understand the necessity of separating short-term possible gains from firing wildly at presumed insurgents and relying more on human intelligence and planning operations against confirmed insurgent strongholds or hideouts.
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