Saleh’s endgame
The fiasco in Yemen where President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to sign the Gulf Cooperation Council’s transition deal has resulted in the GCC suspending the initiative.
Moreover, the entrapping of the GCC envoys by armed men in the UAE embassy to prevent them from going to the presidential palace is bound to create a souring of relations between the Gulf states and President Saleh. No wonder that the regional Gulf Council decided to withdraw after the third attempt to get the obdurate Yemeni leader to sign the GCC deal failed. Saleh’s contention this time around was that the opposition parties that had previously signed the deal in private were not present at the occasion of the signing by him at the Presidential palace.
Under pressure from protesters, the opposition had chosen to sign the deal beforehand at the behest of the GCC in order to avoid further aspersions of compromise cast on them. Considering the Yemeni ruler’s recent record of broken commitments, he is obviously prolonging agreeing to any agreement whereby he has to leave office within a stipulated time period. Unfortunately, Saleh may have lost his one good chance to have a peaceful exit and one that offered him immunity from prosecution. More importantly, by refusing this opportunity, he may have prolonged the instability and opened the door to further violence. So far, the opposition had tried to control the situation from escalating in order to pave the way for the implementation of the proposed GCC deal. With the GCC withdrawing the deal in view of the recent developments, the situation could now tilt either way.
Even as Saleh cited the threat from Al Qaeda that according to him would exploit the political and security vacuum in case of his forced exit, the warning rings hollow. Al Qaeda is more likely to exploit the present phase where the battle lines between Saleh’s camp and the opposition are seething with the growing anger of the masses. This time is actually best suited for the terrorist organisation and its affiliated groups to entrench themselves deeper and use the infighting between the government and the opposition to their advantage. By choosing to engage in confrontation over a peaceful exit, Saleh has pitted the state into a needless phase of
further instability.
He may have also lost the regional states’ help in providing mediation and counsel to end the violence and instability that has now gripped Yemen since many months. One can only hope for better sense to prevail among the president’s camp so as to persuade him to reach out and do the needful.
Kim’s yatra ignites hope
Every time Kim Jong-il travels to China, hopes are rekindled. The North Korean leader who is known for his art of maintaining secrecy, this time however chose to visit Beijing on a declared itinerary.
His weeklong visit to the giant communist neighbour, the third within a span of one year, is not without a purpose. China, which has taken a back seat as far as meddling in the affairs of Pyongyang is concerned, cannot afford to sit back and watch as the reclusive leadership plays to the gallery. There are a host of issues pending on the table for long, and the Stalinist state has preferred to maintain an ostrich syndrome to critical aspects of peace and security in the region.
The foremost thing that the Chinese need to do is to convince Kim to return to the Six-plus-two talks on disarmament and denuclearisation. The country’s clandestine nuclear profile and its obsession to fire missiles across the high seas have kept the region and the world at large on tenterhooks. Further to compound the situation has been the row with South Korea since the sinking of its war vessel at the hands of the North.
Extensive shuttle diplomacy and personalised visits by former US presidents to Pyongyang hadn’t made a difference, as the communist state hasn’t budged an inch from his adamant attitude. The simmering socio-economic unrest is what bothers the world the most, as millions of North Koreans are living a life of the destitute without any recourse to civic amenities of life and proper food and clothing.
While Beijing has proudly informed Seoul that the visit is part of Kim’s learning exercise on country’s economic development, the ‘Dear Leader’ should literally learn a lesson or two on reconciliation and interdependence. All it needs to do is to closely study the sense of interaction and conduit that the Chinese have maintained with the corporate and capitalist world, and yet have been able to retain a particular socialist-cum-communist identity of its own. Pyongyang too is in a similar module. It’s desire for recognition from the Western world and its pressing economic needs can be met if it opens itself for interaction with the outside world by ending its self-imposed isolation. As an immediate outcome, the political process of unification should get a shot in the arm, and both the Koreas should be made to sit across the table.
The Korean syndrome can no more be left at the whims and wishes of a reclusive person. It’s time to meddle it out with him.
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