Uneasy waters
The multiple claims in the South China Sea are much like a dormant virus within the body politic of nations in Southeast and East Asia. When quiescent it is an almost neglected contention among individual parties. But when flagrant, it erupts, spreading a virus of antagonism that belies the diplomatic camaraderie regional leaders boast of before the public.
One should not be surprised. For well over a decade, there have been numerous treatments, but no cure, to this problem.
Over the past two weeks, tensions have again risen among the multiple claimants — especially China, the Philippines and Vietnam. It all goes to show that despite the string of meetings, initiatives and press-friendly statements to ease and resolve the South China Sea issue, there has been much progress but minimal results.
It is further ironic that while disputing states engage their diplomatic hardball and military tit-for-tat with fervor, none, we believe, are would press for an escalated conflagration. Each country on the rim of the South China Sea recognizes the repercussions to their economy of inflated tension on this issue.
Let us note that Indonesia has an immediate interest, which is potentially impacted by strains in the South China Sea. Over the next decade, there needs to be an assured level of stability and security as Indonesia develops its gas deposits at the D-Alpha Natuna bloc south of the disputed area.
Hence there is no excuse to remain reticent about Southeast Asia’s most enduring flashpoint.
As a non-claimant state, Indonesia should perceive the latest flare-up in one of two ways: A cry for help among those involved to seek a way out of the impasse they have mutually created, or diplomatic chess match in which claimants have been drawn into action and counter action. In either case, Indonesia should actively make its good offices fully available.
In the case of the former, domestic constituents make it impossible for claimants to back down from their stated positions. Hence a third-party initiative is needed, particularly in hastening the realization of the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which has been in the works for several decades.
After a decade of workshops and debates, there is no reason — other than grandstanding or malcontent – that the Code of Conduct cannot be agreed on within the next 12 months.
Members of ASEAN, which includes the Philippines and Vietnam, should first come to a common platform on this issue, thus placing pressure on China to act responsibly as a regional superpower by coming to terms with the proposed documents.
In the case of the latter, Indonesia also needs to ensure that the issue does not escalate into a game of balance of power, with the US showing growing interest in projecting itself in the South China Sea talks. This would only segregate the region into unhealthy alliances and vex Beijing to take an even harder stance.
The US does have a positive role to play in resolving these contentious claims, but not as the trump card to be played by smaller countries against China.
We are confident, ultimately, that the latest tensions will abate into diplomatic niceties by the end of the year. Nevertheless we must still ensure that restraints are in place so the issue does not flare up again for the region’s sake and our own.
One should not be surprised. For well over a decade, there have been numerous treatments, but no cure, to this problem.
Over the past two weeks, tensions have again risen among the multiple claimants — especially China, the Philippines and Vietnam. It all goes to show that despite the string of meetings, initiatives and press-friendly statements to ease and resolve the South China Sea issue, there has been much progress but minimal results.
It is further ironic that while disputing states engage their diplomatic hardball and military tit-for-tat with fervor, none, we believe, are would press for an escalated conflagration. Each country on the rim of the South China Sea recognizes the repercussions to their economy of inflated tension on this issue.
Let us note that Indonesia has an immediate interest, which is potentially impacted by strains in the South China Sea. Over the next decade, there needs to be an assured level of stability and security as Indonesia develops its gas deposits at the D-Alpha Natuna bloc south of the disputed area.
Hence there is no excuse to remain reticent about Southeast Asia’s most enduring flashpoint.
As a non-claimant state, Indonesia should perceive the latest flare-up in one of two ways: A cry for help among those involved to seek a way out of the impasse they have mutually created, or diplomatic chess match in which claimants have been drawn into action and counter action. In either case, Indonesia should actively make its good offices fully available.
In the case of the former, domestic constituents make it impossible for claimants to back down from their stated positions. Hence a third-party initiative is needed, particularly in hastening the realization of the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which has been in the works for several decades.
After a decade of workshops and debates, there is no reason — other than grandstanding or malcontent – that the Code of Conduct cannot be agreed on within the next 12 months.
Members of ASEAN, which includes the Philippines and Vietnam, should first come to a common platform on this issue, thus placing pressure on China to act responsibly as a regional superpower by coming to terms with the proposed documents.
In the case of the latter, Indonesia also needs to ensure that the issue does not escalate into a game of balance of power, with the US showing growing interest in projecting itself in the South China Sea talks. This would only segregate the region into unhealthy alliances and vex Beijing to take an even harder stance.
The US does have a positive role to play in resolving these contentious claims, but not as the trump card to be played by smaller countries against China.
We are confident, ultimately, that the latest tensions will abate into diplomatic niceties by the end of the year. Nevertheless we must still ensure that restraints are in place so the issue does not flare up again for the region’s sake and our own.
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