Iraq’s current status quo will not continuef
Those who believe that the current form of government in Baghdad – the outcome of the occupation of Iraq by American forces – is sustainable are hugely mistaken.
This is exactly what worries the current nervous prime minister, who is working hard to strike a new deal that will give U.S. military presence an upper hand in Iraq.
Under current agreements U.S. occupation troops are to leave by year’s end.
The prime minister is banking on statements by his army generals, among them the chief of staff, that Iraqi troops are still not prepared to defend the country and their readiness will take at least ten more years.
The prime minister understands that the sinking of the ship in the mud that will be left in the aftermath of U.S. troops withdrawal will lead to damages worse than those inflicted on the country by the occupation itself.
He now senses that almost everybody is his enemy, even those within his closest circle working for him under the political or factional banner.
This is the kind of characteristic that breeds dictators in the course of time.
It is therefore wrong to say that Iraq’s status quo is the product of constitutional agreement organizing relations between its sects and factions or external stakeholders, namely the U.S. and Iran.
The Iraqi people still have tremendous potential despite policies meant to crush their latent power. The emergence of this latent power will restore the balance in power distorted by bloody iron fist gripping the country so far.
Nothing is stable in Iraq, and the threads keeping the political system in place are weaker than ever. And among certain categories, like the political framework residing in the Green Zone and the rest of the people, there are no threads at all.
There is an enormous event in store for Iraq – an event that will pass in its enormity the revolutions that took place in both Tunisia and Egypt.
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