Exodus threatens Syrian polity
Syrians are in a catch-22 situation. The two-month long uprising that has claimed more than 700 lives is now exploding into an international issue of displacement and refugees.
Hundreds of Syrians, who are struggling to crossover into Lebanon, in order to escape terror and persecution at the hands of government forces, are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. The reported killing of civilians at the border with Lebanon, and the evolving mass exodus is disturbing. This speaks at length the nervousness of the regime in Damascus, and the very premise that it is loosening its power and authority. President Bashar Al Asad seems to lack the tact to deal with the situation, and is apparently content with the doctored make-believe assessments of his vices and the bureaucracy. Had it not been so, the opening of fire on peaceful and apolitical countrymen wouldn’t have occurred. Surprisingly, it occurred in the wake of his pronouncements to withdraw troops and tanks from some cities and offering a national dialogue.
The authorities obsession to use indiscriminate force has further jeopardised the entire situation. The International Committee of the Red Cross fears that thousands might have been detained or made to disappear, as the country is firmly in the grip of terror. The spread of unrest from Deraa to Baniyas, Homs and Aleppo is testimony to the fact that this uprising is conscious of its agenda, and is no vested movement on the part of thugs and criminals as the government wants the world to believe. This is why the world community and especially the civil society had been advocating constraint and to enter into a meaningful relationship with the men
on the street.
The phenomenon of migration could prove very costly to the geopolitical entity of Syria, as its immediate neighbours Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq cannot withstand to accommodate the fleeing millions. Not only will this diaspora bring in renewed socio-economic crunch, but will also mount pressure on Damascus to take in dictates from foreign powers. Syria, which has lived under the shadows of aggression with Israel, will sooner than later find itself in a quagmire of its own, infringing its sovereignty and security.
This ball game of vigil and defiance on the part of people and the regime is too deadly. It has damaged whatever goodwill, which was there as Assad in the initial days of uprising called for caution and consideration. Now for most of the people promises and offers for reconciliation and dialogue fall short of legitimacy. Assad is sitting at the apex of a tree whose trunks are decaying with the passage of every single day. The exodus, coupled with severe lawless, could prove to be the last nail in the coffin.
Time for Saleh to stand down
The Yemeni president is treading a losing track. His defiance to stay put in office is not only taking him to the brink but also sliding his country in further chaos and bloodshed.
The opposition, which had earlier agreed to a series of conditionalities hoping to see transfer of power, is now too going back on its words. This new equation is untenable for peace and security of the country that had seen months of conflict and political polarisation. The rationale way out for President Ali Abdullah Al Saleh is to follow in letter and spirit the deal proposed by the Gulf Cooperation Council, and ensure that Yemen is saved from death and destruction in all humility.
The news that GCC chief Abdullatif Al Zayani had undertaken another visit to Sanaa in his endeavour to make the deal get going is promising. This underscores the importance the regional member states accord for peace and tranquility, and their desire to see Yemen limp back to normalcy. The Gulf plan proposes the formation of a government of national unity with Saleh transferring power to his vice, and at the same time foreseeing that the opposition is on board, as he seeks his exit within a stipulated period of 30 days. Saleh who had agreed to this deal is now apparently indulging in politics of expediency. But that is hardly going to help him, as the return of people on the streets, coupled with lawlessness, will cripple the situation altogether differently.
This deal is a moment of truth for Yemen, its ruling elite and likewise the opposition. The peaceful manner in which power is supposed to be transferred taking into account the ethnic and sectarian sensitivities of the country is, indeed, a blessing in disguise. Saleh has no other recourse but to value the GCC mediation and fall in line, instantly. Simmering tensions and changing ground realities cannot keep the GCC largesse on the table for long, and this is why it is extremely important for the president and his aides to see a reason in standing down. The dispossessed and destructed Arab country is in need of leadership and not dictatorship, per se.
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