Time now for the ANC to look within
IT’s all over bar the counting, and even that is almost a wrap. Now the horse-trading starts in earnest. With the bulk of the votes recorded and reconciled by last night, some significant trends were discernible. The first is that the big winner in this poll is the Democratic Alliance (DA), which not only achieved an absolute majority in Cape Town for the first time but has made significant advances elsewhere in the country.
This is in keeping with both the majority of pre-election forecasts and the longer-term trend, which has seen the DA benefiting from a consolidation of the myriad small opposition parties that used to compete with the African National Congress (ANC). Now with 20%- 25% of the vote nationally, the DA is a force to be reckoned with in terms of political influence and support, and seems set to continue to gain incrementally as SA matures as a democracy.
That said, the party has not won any metros other than Cape Town, despite gaining ground in just about all the major towns and cities. That will disappoint party leader Helen Zille, who was hoping to be able to repeat the successful strategy employed in Cape Town, where the DA has been able to prove its competence as a government and contrast its service delivery record with that of troubled ANC-run metros.
At the same time, the DA has gained enough votes in many sizeable towns to be able to pursue its strategy indirectly through coalitions, which was the way it got its foot in the door in Cape Town. This and the symbolic value of winning a seat in an exclusively black area such as Flagstaff, Transkei and taking former ANC strongholds such as Saldanha, will give the party much encouragement for the next municipal election in five years’ time. And it should be of huge concern to the ANC, especially in places such as Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth), where it barely achieved a majority.
The biggest loser was undoubtedly the Inkatha Freedom Party, which has been cut down to the point of insignificance through a combination of a breakaway by the National Freedom Party and erosion of its remaining KwaZulu-Natal support base by the ANC. This trend was already evident in the 2009 national and provincial elections, and shows no sign of abating.
The Congress of the People, while revealing the effects of the damaging clash of leadership egos that has hobbled the party since the 2009 election, nevertheless seems to have retained a number of the votes it took from the ANC. This has left it as kingmaker in a number of councils where the DA and ANC are neck and neck, and could prove the lifeline the party needs to avoid oblivion in 2014.
Which leaves us with the ANC, which has clearly suffered a severe setback, despite retaining a comfortable majority of the overall national vote. Not only did it fail to make any headway in its efforts to regain ground lost to the DA in places such as Cape Town and Midvaal, but it has given up control of several towns, mainly in the Western Cape, and seen its majorities narrowed significantly in other provinces.
On the back foot from the start due to a shaky service delivery record in the cities and towns it governs, the party resorted to the hardy standby: racial solidarity and its status as the liberation movement that did most to bring down apartheid. That has been a highly effective campaign strategy at all levels of government in the past, but was showing signs of losing its potency as the novelty wore off and more younger people with less rigid loyalties reached voting age. Wednesday’s poll indicated that, at the local level at least, issues directly related to quality of governance can no longer be ignored.
There is going to be much soul- searching within the ANC in the coming few years, including a rethink of the way it sees itself. Is it still primarily a liberation movement focused on correcting the past, or a modern political party governing to achieve a better future?
IMF needs break with past
THE resignation of Dominique Strauss-Kahn has sparked a debate over who should take over his post as MD of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Europe has been quick to assert itself, with top officials insisting the job should go to a European, once again, in step with tradition.
But there is a growing clamour for a candidate from a developing economy to take the helm of the world’s top lending institution.
For a start, the world is changing — emerging economies are growing much faster than the developed world and now account for 34% of its overall output. That will rise steadily in the years ahead, led by China.
Developing economies now hold 40,5% of the voting rights in the IMF, compared with 44,3% for the Group of Seven developed nations.
It has been argued that only a European can manage Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, which so far has led to huge IMF bail-outs for the region’s troubled economies.
But a case can also be made for choosing an outsider who can view Europe’s woes with impartiality.
It doesn’t seem fair that the IMF should have extended loans with such generous conditions to troubled euro-zone nations when their criteria for emerging countries has been far more stringent.
Greece — the biggest recipient of IMF largesse — has a debt burden three times the size of its economy. Its budget deficit amounts to more than 9% of output, three times above the limit set by the euro zone.
The debt ratios of most emerging economies look much better: S A ’s is about 33% of output.
Europe’s predicament is, of course, more complex and weighty but the fact is that key emerging economies have done a good job of managing their finances.
The idea that the post should still go to a European is as outdated as the preference for graduates from top universities — the decision is not based on ability or performance.
Former Turkish finance minister Kemal Dervis is a strong contender for the IMF job as he is credited with pulling Turkey out of its financial crisis in 2001 with tough reforms.
Turkey’s position between East and West could also count in its favour. But there are many other suitable candidates, including Planning Minister Trevor Manuel.
One can only hope that the IMF’s developing countries can quickly coalesce behind one candidate.
Dated-20/05/2011
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