Will Obama deliver?
If one were to analyse US President Barack Obama’s speech at the State Department in terms of the Israel- Palestine conflict, some key issues have been raised.
While these may be indicative of a policy shift, it is also possible that President Obama may have done so to get the Palestinians back on the negotiation table and to dissuade them from pursuing the Resolution for Palestinian Statehood in the United Nations this September.
Washington’s support of the creation of an independent Palestinian state on the lines of the 1967 borders albeit after a negotiated two-state peace settlement is significant. Obviously, the Palestinian initiative — that has already obtained support from some Latin American states — to gain international recognition of a Palestinian state is opposed by the United States. This is why Obama warned the Palestinians to refrain from presenting the Resolution before the UN General Assembly.
Obama’s stress on a peace deal based on the borders before the 1967 Arab-Israeli war has naturally created a major upset in Tel Aviv. The speech, coming a day before the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington elicited an angry response. Denouncing what is being perceived as a US policy shift, the Israeli Prime Minister has said that the 1967 Israeli borders were “indefensible”. The fact that Israel has since occupation of Arab and Palestinian territories post 1967 expanded settlements — which currently host about 300,000 Israeli settlers — the very idea of withdrawal and return of those territories is unthinkable now for any government in Israel. Even Obama’s proposal of land swaps to compensate for disputed territory faces opposition.
Even while advocating Israel’s right to a peaceful existence, Obama did lay out a subtle warning to the Jewish state saying that the status quo cannot be sustained, given the demographic realities and the recent changes brought about by the sheer will power of people who desired change. In the case of the Israeli-Palestine conflict the people are tired of the failed peace efforts and desirous to implement change. This is why Israel “must act boldly to advance lasting peace.”
At the same time the inclusion of Hamas in the Palestinian unity government was viewed as a deterrent to negotiations, for the militant faction’s views on Israel.
The good thing is that the US, cognisant of the shift in regional dynamics and sensitive to how its policies are being viewed may take a sterner approach to Israel’s dawdling on negotiating a peace deal.
The Palestinians should make full use of this shift and display firmness and maturity in negotiating their terms on the issue of Israeli settlements which will eventually determine how the new Palestinian state is shaped. How the negotiations fare will determine the fate of the return of the Palestinian refugees and the division of Jerusalem.
Japan slides, Europe limps
Tokyo is mired in a recessionary trend. Three months down the line since the tsunami hit Honshu devastating it to the core, the economy is contracting.
This inevitably is a clear sign of stagnation to come in growth and productivity, and doesn’t bode well for the third largest economy of the world. Private consumption, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of the economy, is in a jittery mood and the purchasing power is at an all times low since the downslide hit the world economy in the year 2008. And Japan is not alone in experiencing the new slump.
The battered euro, too, is dipping and the monetary union is groping in the dark to find a consolidated berth and a remedy of its own. This twin collapse-of-sorts that account for an overwhelming chunk of global economy has come at a time when the International Monetary Fund has gone peerless and the man who had advocated a strategy to bailout all the crumbling economies in the region – despite Washington’s annoyance ‑‑ is down and out in a New York prison cell.
The fear is that with Japan’s consumption and exports to be worst hit, this downslide cycle will snowball first into the ASEAN region and then the world at large. The reason: Japan remains one of the biggest importers of raw materials from across the world, and had only retained the supremacy of producing and exporting some of best manufactured stuff ranging from noodle sticks to nuclear plants.
The forecast that reconstruction demand is likely to spur growth is the only silver lining for the floating island and to a large extent will be dependent on the magnitude of liquidity pumped into developmental projects. To what extent the economy will bounce back is yet to be ascertained and comes as one of the biggest challenges for Prime Minister Kan’s government since the Hiroshima-Nagasaki catastrophe.
A similar trend in Europe from Greece to the Irish Republic and then to Portugal is quite unnerving. Many more seem to be queued up as Finland and the like are tapping on the door of the IMF for an emergent bailout.
Europe’s and Japan’s trade and investment profiles stand badly disturbed, and are unlikely to be back on roll in the absence of a comprehensive dialogue on issues of growth, protectionism and monetary strength.
The G20’s Pittsburgh and London spirit is in need of being reviewed, and this time around should also encompass the finer points that were recommended by the developing economies of the world like Brazil, India, Russia, China and the South Africa. A recipe to pull Japan out of production crisis is in need of being chalked out.
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