Te Tai Tokerau vote watershed for Maori
The voters of Te Tai Tokerau have an important decision to make on Saturday.
The byelection that Hone Harawira has forced for his own purposes is about far more than his merits as a local MP or a community worker.
It is about the role that Maori want in national decisions.
Mr Harawira represents a role they know well - proud, uncompromising and perennially outside the door when decisions are made.
Labour's candidate, Kelvin Davis, offers another familiar role - inside the door the next time Labour can form a Government - but on past experience, a role that will be practically invisible.
The Maori Party offers something new - an independent role inside the door, though its candidate, Solomon Tipene, is not an inspiring presence.
The general election in November will give all voters on the Maori roll a chance to rule on the Maori Party's role within the Government.
If nothing else, the past three years have established the Maori Party's independence.
It has been capable of working with the only party that could form a Government after the last election. That cannot have been easy for Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia and the others.
But if they had not been willing to work with National when it won, they would not be independent participants in national decisions; they would be an adjunct of Labour.
Mr Harawira never got over his discomfort with National. His differences with his colleagues came to a head late last year when he started writing articles accusing them of selling out their people and being a party to policies that hurt the poor.
This is the sort of rhetoric that might win votes but it does nothing to advance the position of Maori in national life.
Neither of the major parties feels it can work with Mr Harawira, for good reason. He openly scorns the compromises that are necessary in government and believes his people are best served by a party that acts like a protest group, standing apart and chanting demands. It is a role Maori know well; Mr Harawira can offer them little more.
At Panguru last week, he proposed a travelling "Parliament" of Maori MPs of all parties to meet in each Maori electorate, largely to listen.
That would be a good idea if the MPs were in a position to make decisions, a role that would discipline their response to the demands they hear. But for MPs outside power it would be just another sounding board.
If he wins the byelection Mr Harawira says the first thing he will do is call the leaders of the Maori Party - which may be a sign he recognises the damage he has done to Maori's prospect of winning pivotal power after the general election.
Mr Harawira might hold his electorate but his Mana Party would merely reduce the Maori Party vote in the others, returning most of them to Labour.
Mrs Turia says she would be willing to talk to Mr Harawira after the byelection about reviving a pact that the two parties will not stand candidates in the same electorates in November.
But if he wins on Saturday, he is unlikely to restrict his new party to Te Tai Tokerau. He could assert a right to stand candidates in as many electorates as the Maori Party, which would weaken its post-election prospects.
Only Te Tai Tokerau voters can deny him the momentum he needs to set up a rival party that would adopt the role he prefers. The byelection could become seen as a historic setback for the progress the Maori Party has made.
The party has proceeded carefully, with limited resources, investing in a relationship with a Government that is likely to last a while. If that is not the role most Maori voters want, we shall soon find out.
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