NATO-Russia duo for Libya
The crisis in North Africa is up for grabs. The NATO-Moscow parleys in the Russian resort of Sochi could prove to be the first step towards attaining a geopolitical solution of the dispute at hand.
Furthermore, the very fact that NATO is lending a listening ear to Russia, an ally of Libya, is a welcome sign, and indicates a rapprochement in the making. Dealing tactfully with the regime in Tripoli is a test case of diplomacy and endurance, and Moscow, which has criticised the military option, is duty-bound to ensure that NATO comes down from its stated position of stopping at nothing less than Gaddafi’s exit. The point is: if the West can get along with Syrian Bashar Al Assad in lecturing him for finding an amicable solution for the discord, why can’t it give the Libyans a chance, as well, to cope with changing realities of real-politicks.
The thaw seems to have already set in on two counts: the Libyan rebels, though with reservations, are willing to enter into a broad-based dialogue with the powers-that-be in Tripoli provided it assured them of an era minus Gaddafi. So is the case with NATO, which has not only over-stretched its mandate from the United Nations, but has also run out of options in coercing the embattled regime. Moscow and, likewise, Beijing have no recourse but to spring back in action and save a nation from the horrors of mass exodus and genocide. The West’s trigger-happy approach as is evident from the Balkans to Afghanistan and from Iraq to Somalia is a telling tale of power arrogance, which has inevitably come to dub the new century as one of aggressions and invasions.
There are a lot of initiatives around that are in need of being reevaluated and choreographed, and one such possibility is that of the African Union. President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, who also attended the Sochi talks, can better assert his continent’s point of view, and compel Paris and London for brokering a political solution for the battle-scared nation. Washington can no more afford to sit idle as military and diplomatic options get exhausted. Without bothering much for a bickering Congress, President Obama has to lead from the front. The way the State Department had made inroads in Tripoli under Secretary Condoleezza Rice can be a good module for re-engaging Gaddafi. It’s time
to get talking.
Thailand’s political roadmap
Thailand is to have a new government headed by no other but the ousted former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra, heading the Pheu Thai party.
Though Yingluck’s victory is nothing less than sweet revenge for the removal of her brother in a military coup back in 2006, the road ahead is not free from obstacles. For one, the military are not likely to be pleased about Thaksin’s sister in the saddle, despite having said that they wont be interfering.
Despite the military’s backing of the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, it failed to win enough seats to form the new government. It is a historic moment for Thaksin who from his self imposed exile in the UAE has stated his wish to not be involved in politics anymore. There is a widely held perception that he will try to return during his sister’s tenure.
The question is how the new Thai head of state balances filial loyalties in case her brother does return against powerful figures in the country who are clearly going to oppose the move. Maybe Yingluck could persuade her brother to clear his name in the Courts to end the matter
for once and all.
The usually peaceful country witnessed a bout of severe violence during demonstrations held by pro-Thaksin protesters last year. Almost 90 people were killed in Bangkok when the army moved in to clear the areas occupied by the pro-Thaksin Red shirts. Thaksin’s hasty departure from the country in 2008 before his trial investigating
corruption ended left a vacuum thereby allowing the opposition to reiterate allegations of corruption.
Yingluck’s electoral win however proves that millions of Thai people threw their support with her family, since she herself has not been involved in politics till the start of the election campaign. Their votes also affirm their wish to give the Thaksins a chance to prove themselves beyond the allegations. It is no wonder that Yingluck’s election campaign has focused on fighting corruption and achieving reconciliation.
In a clever move, the politically inexperienced but business savvy politician — incidentally also Thailand’s first female prime minister — has announced the formation of a coalition government. By incorporating smaller parties in the government, the chances of achieving the reconciliation of political factions and pushing ahead the promised reforms are higher. On the flip side, discontentment within the coalition over government portfolios, positions and policy decisions could also act as deterrents in moving forward. But such glitches are natural in any alliance and will require diplomacy and good management to avoid these to unravel the government.
It is hoped that the new setup is able to prove its worth and brings about the much-needed political stability in the country. Only then can it attempt to improve the economic situation and sustain a democratic process that has been derailed,
once too often.
Lebanon simmers
The tribunal’s indictment has tensed Lebanon. Fearing a backlash from the Hezbollah and subsequently a proactive movement from the pro-Hariri political forces, people are keeping their fingers crossed. However, a detailed press statement from the Shia political-militia has helped climb down the cliffhanger, and it is hoped that reason and logic will prevail in implementing the recommendations of the United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s words were, nonetheless, quite reassuring. In a televised address on Saturday, he told the tense Lebanese to calm down, as there is nothing to fear at least on his organisation’s part. At the same time, he was quite offensive as he commented on the veracity of the tribunal, and squarely dubbed it as an Israeli plot to discredit Lebanon and his party. His challenge that none can dare to arrest and prosecute four of the members of his organisation, allegedly involved in the killing of former premier Rafik Hariri, speaks at length the seriousness of the issue, and indicates the level of political polarisation.
So much so for the defined positions of either parties! But that is neither going to help, nor defuse the volatility in the air. The government in Beirut is virtually obliged to act on the indictment orders and arrest the four wanted Hezbollah men. That, however, is an impossible task to achieve taking into account the fact that the minority government is there in power leaning heavily on the crutches of the militia, and could not rise to the occasion. How Saad Hariri and his political supporters will react once the deadline gets near is difficult to guess, as it will pose as a question of their survival in political terms. Secondly, given to understand the international support for cornering Hezbollah, any brinkmanship approach from Hariri could plunge the war-weary country into renewed civil strife.
This tribunal finding has served no purpose, indeed. It has rather upped the ante. The need of the hour is a tripartite dialogue between the Hezbollah, the Hariris’ and a conglomerate of all stakeholders in Lebanon — to once and for all address the shadow of doubt that is hanging on since 2005. The pro-Iranian militia should also keep in mind that geopolitical connotations are changing and it would be in the larger interest of the nation and the region to unmask the culprits who have sowed a seed of dissent. Nasrallah and Hariri should get down to address the imbroglio on a personal note, and relieve Lebanese of a perpetual stress they are in. There is no harm if the indicted men are made to speak up before the nation.
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